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Model Tracking Portfolio

The model tracking portfolio is provided primarily as a way to track performance of following our stock picks throughout the year. The Model Tracking Portfolio is not a recommendation to purchase. While subscribers may wish to consider this portfolio there is no suggestion that any particular individual should imitate this portfolio. Each subscriber should consider the suitability of these stocks for their own portfolio, should seek other advice and ultimately is responsible for their own trading choices. Subscribers should also consider the detailed stock research reports on the main research page of this Site.

We think it is preferable for subscribers to make your own choices from among our rated stocks rather than for example simply following this Model Tracking Portfolio.

This Model tracking Portfolio was not selected to be well diversified. Rather it mostly simply consists of higher rated stocks from this Site. The lack of full diversification adds to its risk.

The model tracking portfolio is meant to be a 100% equity portfolio (cash may be held if stocks are notionally sold during the year). The Decision of how much cash or bonds to hold in addition to equity depends on individual circumstances and is something individual subscribers should consider.

As always, it is ultimately up to each individual  investor to decide which stocks that they hold.

For January 1, 2008, we selected a new Model Tracking Portfolio based on the then current ratings for the stocks on this Site.

At the start of the year, the four stocks in the Strong buy range as well as Tim Hortons were weighted at 7.5%, as was the energy index. All other selections were weighted at 5% each.

On June 9 half of the oil index XEG was sold at the opening price of  $115.25  and replaced with Melcor, MRD at the opening price of $14.96

The Couche-Tard shares will be notionally sold at the opening price on Monday October 20 (turned out to be $14.40). Half of the Money will be used to purchase Melcor (turned out to be at $6.55) and half XEG the energy index (turned out to be at $14.95), to reflect stocks which I have recently purchased in my own portfolio.

As of November 12 this model tracking portfolio is down 28%. By comparison, the TSX is down 35% and the S&P 500 is down 42%.

Note that the prices for U.S. stocks have been converted to Canadian dollars. The drop in the Canadian dollar this year has benefited the U.S. stocks in this portfolio.

Note that while the stock prices are updated to November 16, the fundamentals are not updated to the latest quarter in a number of cases. The column headed "Earnings From" shows which quarter the dividends, equity and earnings in the yield  Adjusted ROE and Adjusted P/E and the Price to Book ratio are from.

Div. Yield Adj. ROE P/B Adj. P/E Company Jan. 1, 2008 Initial Generic Rating Initial Price $CAN Earnings from  Latest Generic Rating (May be Out of Date) Not a Recommendation  Price $CAN at this update Current Weight Price Increase
        CASH           0.0%  
4.9% -16.4%  0.4  negative  Kingsway Financial Services Inc. (KFS, Toronto and New York)  Speculative  (lower) Strong Buy    $   12.01  Dec '07 Y.E. +Q3 '08   Highly Speculative Buy rated at CAN $6.69 or U.S. $5.90   $   6.13 5.2% -49.0%
5.8% 20.8%  2.2  10.8 IGM Financial (IGM, Toronto)  Strong Buy    $   50.03  Dec '07 Y.E. +Q2 2008   (higher) Buy rated at $45.50   $ 35.17 7.2% -29.7%
0.9% 12.9%  2.0  15.9 Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc., ATD.B  (lower) Strong Buy    $   18.29  Apr '08 Y.E. +Q1 '09   Weak Buy rated at $14.58   $ 15.71 0.0% -14.1%
5.1% 16.3%  1.7  10.6 Telus non-voting (T.A, Toronto TU, New York)  (lower) Strong Buy    $   48.01  Dec 07 Y.E. +Q1   (higher) Buy rated at $45.95   $ 35.40 7.6% -26.3%
1.3% 29.4%  4.8  17.3 Tim Hortons (THI, Toronto and New York)  Buy    $   36.64  Dec '07 Y.E. +Q3 '08   Buy rated at CAN $27.84 and U.S. $23.24   $ 27.24 7.6% -25.7%
0.0% 17.4%  2.6  11.3 FIRSTSERVICE CORPORATION (FSV, Toronto) (FSRV, NASDAQ)   Buy   $   30.49  March '08 Y.E.    Speculative (higher) Buy rated at U.S. $17.80 or CAN $17.88      16.77 3.8% -45.0%
2.0% 16.9%  2.1  13.3 Canadian National Railway Company (CNR, Toronto CNI, New York)  (lower) Buy   $   46.65  Dec '07 + Q3 '08Y.E.   (higher) Buy rated at $49.13   $ 46.38 6.8% -0.6%
1.8% 20.9%  3.1  15.8 Wal-Mart (WMT, New York)  (higher) Buy   $   47.46  Jan 31 2008 Y.E.+ Q2'09   (higher) Buy rated at U.S. $62.17   $ 65.22 9.4% 37.4%
3.8% 11.0%  1.3  11.4 ING Canada (IIC, Toronto)  (higher) Buy    $   39.62  Dec '07 Y.E.   (higher) Buy rated at $37.49   $ 32.80 5.7% -17.2%
1.9% 13.2%  1.1   9.2 Canadian Tire (CTC.a, TO)  Buy   $   74.20  Dec '07 Y.E. + Q1'08   Buy rated at $60.35   $ 44.94 4.2% -39.4%
1.6% 16.8%  1.9  11.0 Walgreen (WAG, New York)  Buy   $   38.03  Aug '07 Y.E. + Q3 2008   Buy rated at U.S. $33.23      28.95 5.2% -23.9%
2.6% 17.5%  1.7  10.4 Canadian Western Bank (CWB, Toronto)  Buy    $   31.35  Oct 2007 Y.E. + Q1'08   Buy rated at $24.12   $ 16.82 3.7% -46.3%
3.6% 21.6%  4.3  21.3 Shaw Communications Inc. (SJR.b, Toronto  SJR, New York)  Speculative Buy   $   23.64  Aug. '08 Y.E.    (lower) Strong Buy rated at $20.09   $ 22.50 6.5% -4.8%
6.2% 22.5%  1.6   7.8 Reitmans (RET.A, TO)  Buy rated   $   19.19  January 2008 Y.E. + Q1'09   (lower) Buy rated at $14.52   $ 11.63 4.2% -39.4%
1.7% 18.7%  1.9   9.1 Target (TGT, New York)  Buy   $   49.93  Feb 08 Y.E. + Q2' 09   Buy rated at U.S. $56.57      40.81 5.6% -18.3%
2.6% 57.0%  5.3   9.4 Microsoft (MSFT, NASDAQ)  Buy   $   35.55  June '08 Y.E.+ Q1 2009   Strong Buy rated at U.S. $23.10      24.78 4.8% -30.3%
  12.7%  0.5   4.6 MELCOR DEVELOPMENTS LTD. (MRD, Toronto)  Speculative (lower) Buy    $   19.89  Dec '07 Y.E. + Q3 2008   (Higher) Buy rated at $5.22        5.22 5.6% -73.8%