2025

Custom Brokers as an investment

It occurs to me that U.S. customs brokers must be very busy these days. I have no knowledge of that business but it seems to me that with massive tariffs the business of of customs brokers must be increasing. I don't know, but presumably their revenu...


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April 7, 2025 11:30 am eastern

Markets are highly volatile this morning. After opening lower, the S&P 500 has swung to a gain twice but is down 1.5% at the moment and Toronto is down a similar 1.6%.
While markets can certainly go lower, I 'm not an advocate of selling into wea...


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Andrew Peller Updated April 6, 2025

The report on wine producer Andrew Peller is updated and rated (lower) Buy at $4.54.
This is a very tough business and suffers from stiff competition. But it has shown a good improvement in the last couple of quarters and several very poor years. The...


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April 6, 2025

Markets were spanked down on Friday with the S&P 500 down 6.0% and Toronto down 4.7%.
The various preferred shares on our list did not escape the downdraft on Friday. Preferred shares of strong companies will continue to pay their dividends. I wo...


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April 4, 2025 10:40 am eastern

The market declines due to the tariff madness continues.
S&P 500 down 3.9% and Toronto down 4.1%.
West Texas Oil is down to $61.24. Not great for Alberta if it continues, although the volume of oil being produced in Alberta is unlikely to decline...


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April 3, 2025

On Thursday, the reaction to Trump's new tariffs sent the S&P 500 down 4.8% and Toronto down 3.8%.
Stocks on our list with a 10% or higher decline included:
Shopify -  down 20%
Starbucks - down 11%
lululemon - down 9.6% (call it 10%)
Stocks bucki...


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April 3, 2025 10:30 am eastern

Markets are down fairly bigly this morning with the S&P 500 down 3.8% and Toronto down 2.8%.
Shopify is the hardest hit stock on our list, down almost 17% in Toronto.
As expected TFI and CN Rail are down noticeably.
Meanwhile Dollarama is up 6.6%...


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April 2, 2025

On Wednesday the S&P 500 was up 0.7% and Toronto was up 1.1%.
TFI International was up 4.6%.
Dollarama was up 3.5% and is set to release earnings tomorrow morning.
Trump released details of his reciprocal tariffs after the close. There are BIG ta...


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April 2, 2025 noon eastern

Markets are up modestly as we await the news from Trump after the close (unless he leaks it earlier which is entirely possible).
Linamar is up an optimistic 2.7%.
 
...


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April 1, 2025

On Tuesday, the S&P 500 was up 0.4% and Toronto was up 0.5%.
AutoCanada was down 5.6%.
Trump is scheduled to release his latest tariff plans just after the close of trading tomorrow.
Longer term interest rates have declined recently with the U.S....


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April 1, 2025 11:10 am eastern

Markets are up marginally this morning as we await Trump's tariff news tomorrow.
Auto Canada is down 3.3%.
Oil prices remain stronger at $71.57. But the recent gain was partly based on Trump talking about possible sanctions on Russia as Putin refuses...


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March 31, 2025

On Monday, the S&P 500 recovered from earlier losses to close up 0.55%. Toronto was up 0.6% as the price of oil rose.
Visa was up 2.2%.
My next update will be for Melcor Developments. It's been a poor investment but it did have a strong Q4. Its o...


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March 31, 2025 11:40 am eastern time

The S&P 500 has bounced off its lows earlier today but is still down 0.6% while Toronto is up 0.3% (with oil up 2.5% to $71.12).
Shopify is down 4.4%.
Restaurant Brands is up 4.0%.
Linamar is up 1.3% (as it holds it breath waiting to see what Tru...


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March 29, 2025

Markets slumped on Friday with the S&P 500 down a hefty 2.0% and Toronto down 1.6%.
lululemon as I mentioned got hammered down 14%.
Restaurant Brands was down 6%.
Among the relatively few stocks that were at least marginally higher on the day wer...


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March 28, 2025 10:50 am eastern

Markets are down this morning with the S&P 500 down 1.5% and Toronto down 1.1%.
lululemon got hammered down about 15% to about $290 due to announcing a weaker outlook. Seeing this I added somewhat to my position. But not a huge amount as there ma...


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March 27, 2025

Thursday's session saw the S&P 500 down 0.3% and Toronto apparently p[precisely unchanged.
Linamar was down a modest 2.7% after Trump's auto tariff announcement yesterday. Apparently auto parts will be exempt from the tariffs at least temporarily...


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March 27, 2025 10:15 am eastern

Markets are down about 0.1% this morning.
Linamar, not surprisingly is down 5.0% on the news yesterday that the U.S. tariff will be 25% on autos and parts starting April 2 and that this is  meant to be permanent. If so, it will be interesting to see ...


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March 26, 2025

Markets ended Wednesday with the S&P 500 down 1.1% and Toronto down 0.7%.
After the close, Trump held a news conference and signed an executive order apparently imposing a 25% tariff on auto and auto parts imports into the U.S. effective April 2....


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March 26, noon eastern

The S&P 500 and Toronto are both down modestly as of about noon eastern time.
Shopify has bounced down 4.7% but that's typical of this volatile stock.
Linamar is up 2.4% probably on hopes that Trump will at least partly exempt the auto industry f...


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March 25, 2025

Tuesday's markets ended with the S&P 500 up 0.2% and Toronto up 0.1%.
I see a story that claims that Hudson's Bay can sell it's leases. Other parties might want to take over the leases and repurpose the space.
I'm not so sure about that. Back aro...


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RioCan updated March 25, 2025

The report and rating on RioCan is updated as Buy at $17.25. The unit price has pulled back due to its exposure to the Hudson's Bay bankruptcy which I have mentioned in the comments over the past week or so. It's a well managed business. The distribu...


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March 25, 2025 11:10 am eastern

Markets continued to push higher this morning with the S&P 500 up 0.3% and Toronto up 0.4%.
I'm not seeing any big moves, just most stocks edging up.
 
...


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March 24, 2025

On Monday the S&P 500 ended the day with a hefty gain of 1.8% and Toronto gained 1.3%.
The great majority of the stocks on our list were higher on the day.
I'm trying not to rush to out cash to work but I added a little to my RioCan and Couche-Ta...


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March 24, 2025 noon eastern

Markets are strong this morning with the S&P 500 up 1.7% and Toronto up 1.5%. Apparently this is due to reports that the April 2 Trump tariffs won't be as bad as feared and will be sector specific.
Given the idea of reciprocal tariffs, it seems t...


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March 23, 2025

On Friday, the S&P 500 ended the day up 0.1% while Toronto was down 0.4%.
I'm working on an update for RioCan. I read the annual report closely and saw nothing to be concerned about. I will rate it somewhere in the Buy range. It's never going to ...


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March 21, 2025 11 am eastern

Markets are down this morning with the S&P 500m down 0.5% and Toronto down 0.6%.
RioCan is down another 1.5% to $17.33. I continue to think this is a good entry point but the market disagrees. RioCan has the financial strength to weather a downtu...


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March 20, 2025

On Thursday, markets finished the day with the S&P 500 down 0.2% Toronto about unchanged.
AutoCanada gained 9.6%.
There is likely a risk that the market will at some point will consider some of Trump's actions to be bad for stock valuations. Talk...


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March 20, 2025 11 am eastern

Markets are up moderately this morning.
Cameco is up 3.4%.
AutoCanada is up 6.4%. The market apparently viewed the Q4 results positively overall. Selling vehicles is a tough competitive and low margin business. The servicing is a better business. The...


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March 19, 2025

Markets closed higher on Wednesday. The market was apparently comforted by the FED chair's remarks today although the FED sees continued inflation and somewhat higher unemployment and probably no imminent cut to interest rates. I'm not sure how that ...


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March 19, 2025 noon eastern

Markets are positive again this morning with the S&P 500 up 0.8% and Toronto up a strong 1.2%.
Higher markets are welcome except that I would hate to see Trump take this as an endorsement of his tariff and and other unfriendly policies.
Couche-Ta...


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Comment on Alimentation Couche-Tard March 18, 2025

Couche-Tard was out with a good earnings report after the close. Same-store merchandise sales were moderately positive on average after about four quarters of decline. Its margins on fuel sales were slightly higher year over year and continue to be q...


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March 18, 2025

On Tuesday, the S&P 500 finished the day down 1.1% while Toronto was down 0.3%
RioCan was notable with a 3.6% decline. I had thought and said that it did not have much exposure to the Bay. I had checked and saw that the The Bay did not appear on ...


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March 18, 11 am eastern

Markets are weaker this this morning with the S&P 500 down 0.9% and Toronto down 0.2%.
Canadian inflation at 2.6% year-over-year came in higher than expected. While higher prices in February versus January can be blamed partly on the end of the G...


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March 17. 2025

On Monday, the S&P 500 was up 0.6% and Toronto was up 0.9%.
lululemon was up 5.6%. They will announce earnings on Thursday of next week (the 27th).
Today, I added a little to my RioCan position. I like it as a low risk investment. I was reading t...


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March 17, 2025 11:20 am eastern time

Markets have started out the day on a moderately positive tone. This is apparently due to lower U.S. inflation sparking hoped for a FED interest rate cut.
The S&P 500 is up 0.2% and Toronto is up 0.5%.
AutoCanada is up 4.8%.
CMHC is out with hous...


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March 16, 2025

Markets bounced higher on Friday with the S&P 500 finishing the day up  2.1% and Toronto was up 1.45%.
But what will this week bring? Unfortunately, that depends on largely on what Trump says next. Will there be deals made to lower tariffs and lo...


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March 14, 2025 11:30 am eastern

Markets have bounced higher this morning with the S&P 500 up 1.1% and Toronto up 0.9%.
Reports indicate that this bounce is partly becasue of a hope or prediction that cooler heads will prevail regarding the trade war. Obviously, that may may or ...


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Melcor Developments Comment

Melcor Developments reported Q4 and 2024 results after the close.
They were better than I expected. The shares are under-valued. But they are also very thinly traded and basically unpopular and attract very little attention. So, it's not clear that t...


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March 13, 2025

Thursday was a negative day in the markets with the S&P 500 down 1.4% and Toronto down 0.7%.
Starbucks was down 2.7% to $96. I might get interested in it again if it goes below $90.
Toll Brothers is down 3.4% to $103. That is a huge decline from ...


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March 13, 2025 11:30 am eastern

Markets are down this morning (S&P 500 down 0.7%, Toronto down 0.2%).
With Shopify down 5% to just under $132 I bought back a few shares that I had sold in January at $180. I'm not backing up the truck on anything but do want to very slowly deplo...


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March 12, 2025

On Wednesday, the S&P 500 closed up 0.5% and Toronto was up 0.7% as oil prices has risen modestly.
Shopify bounced up 3.6%. Overall compared to recent days it was a relatively quiet day in the markets.
 
...


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March 12, 2025 noon eastern time

The big news today was the Bank of Canada cutting its overnight target rate by 0.25% to 2.75% (which was not a great surprise). This was in response to expected economic uncertainty and lower business investment caused by the tariff war.
Today's new ...


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March 11, 2025

Tuesday was another day of the market reacting to changes in the tariff news.
The S&P 500 was down noticeably most of the day and then recovered to a small gain in the afternoon before closing down 0.7% while Toronto ended the day down 0.5%.
Tran...


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March 10, 2025

Markets were decidedly weak on Monday as the S&P 500 fell 2.7% and Toronto fell 1.5%. The Nasdaq was down 4.0%.
Almost all the stocks on our list were down including Starbucks down 5.0% and Shopify down 6.9%.
Among the few stocks that went up wer...


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Costco Updated March 10, 2025

Costco is updated and rated Weak Sell / Hold. It's valuation is just too rich in my view. I could call it a Sell just as easily but it has so much market support that I went with Weak Sell / Hold. It is a very powerful company. I'd like to buy it at ...


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March 10, 2025 10 am eastern

Markets are down this morning with the S&P 500 down 1.65% and Toronto down 1.1%.
At the moment it seems likely that a negative tone to markets will continue but of course things can change at any time.
Canadian Tire has been doing surprisingly we...


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March 9, 2025

Friday's markets ended the day with the S&P 500 up 0.55% and Toronto up 0.7%.
Costco was down 6.1%. The problem for Costco as an investment is the very rich valuation. It will be my next update. I will  likely conclude it's too expensive for my t...


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Linamar updated and a look back at the stock’s history March 8, 2025

Linamar is updated and rated Buy at $51.17. (That was a price from Thursday and it closed Friday at $53.25).
Looking back, I first added Linamar to our list on November 27, 2026 at $51.09 and rated it a Strong Buy.
Over eight years later the stock ha...


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March 7, 2025 10:10 am eastern

Markets are currently moderately positive.
Costco is down 4.7%. Same-store sales growth at 9% was good. Presumably it was comments about the outlook and consumer behavior that has pushed the price down as well mas the fact that it has been so richly ...


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March 6, 2025

Note that I made some comments about the Melcor REIT this morning. That comment may not have uploaded this morning but is now uploaded.
On Thursday, the S&P500 was down 1.8% and Toronto was down 1.15%.
It seems Trump took notice and backed off on...


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March 6, 2025 11 am eastern

This morning (at the moment) the S&P 500 is down 0.6% and Toronto is down 0.3%.
West Texas oil is just under $66.
lululemon is up 3.7%. I was at West Edmonton Mall just before noon on Monday. lululemon was about the only store I saw that was reas...


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March 5, 2025

On Wednesday, the S&P 500 was up 1.1%. (I'm not sure that's a good thing since it could mean that Trump will see that his tariffs have not caused the market to fall much.)
Toronto was up 1.2%.
I'd expect continued volatility as hopes for an early...


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March 5, 2025 11:10 am eastern

The S&P 500 is little changed at the moment. Toronto is up 0.3% on (wishful?) hopes that meetings today will result in some softening of the tariffs.
I watched Trump's speech last night and it was mostly self-congratulatory about what he has alre...


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March 4, 2025

Markets were volatile on Tuesday due to the tariff war.
The S&P 500 initially fell but in the afternoon was briefly in positive territory (possible due to some indication that the tariffs might be reduced) band ended the day with the S&P 500 ...


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Understanding Canada’s Exports and Imports by product and service and by country

What products does Canada Import and Export? Which countries, other than the United States, are important trading partners of Canada? What products is Canada a net exporter of and what is it a net importer of? The sometimes surprising answers are provided below in a brief and graphical format.

What does Canada Export?

As a country, Canada imports goods and services that amount to $1,029 billion per year or about 33% of GDP. That would not be sustainable unless exports were at a roughly similar level, which, luckily, they are. Exports in 2024 were $999 billion or about 32% of GDP. Total In a sense it can be said that every country that imports things needs to export something to pay for those imports – unless the country collectively is to run down its savings or run up its debts to pay for imports.

Here is a breakdown of Canada’s exports by category:

Data Source: Statistics Canada

Exports and imports of goods and services quarterly (choose current dollars, not chained 2017)

Canada’s largest category of exports by far is energy products at $183 billion or 18% of the total – crude oil is the great majority of this followed by natural gas then refined petroleum products and coal and a minor amount of electricity and nuclear fuel. Commercial services which includes management services, financial services and information services is the second largest category at $125 billion or 12.5% of the total. Metal and non-metallic mineral products is the third biggest export category at $112 billion or 11%. Consumer goods, perhaps surprisingly, is fourth largest at $97 billion or 10% of the total. Motor vehicles have declined to the fifth largest export segment at $93 billion or 9% of total exports.

Canada has a reputation for exporting relatively unprocessed natural resources. That is certainly true in regards to oil and metal and mineral ores. But most of Canada’s exports are not raw materials. For example, under forestry products, raw logs represent only 1% of that category.

To Which Countries Does Canada Export to (Excludes Services)?

The answer to that question is alarming especially in light of the current tariff war:

 

Data Source, Statistics Canada

International merchandise trade for all countries and by principal trading partners, quarterly seasonally adjusted (multiply by four to annualise).
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/gblec02a-eng.htm (monthly)

Note that our data source does not include services in the exports-by-country data.

The United States accounted for the great majority of Canadian goods (merchandise) exports at $604 billion or a staggering 75% of the total. (Our figures are based on Q4 seasonally adjusted and annualized.)  The European Union collectively is the second largest export destination at $39 billion or 5% of the total. The U.K. and China at about $32 billion each represent about 4% of the total. Mexico, despite its proximity imports only about $9 billion annually of goods from Canada or 1% of Canada’s total exports.

Things may be changing and China is an important  “customer” country for Canada. But the fact is, for now, when it comes to Canadian exports, the United States remains our number one export destination by far. Mexico, despite its proximity accounts for only $9 billion annually or 1.2%. Canada’s exports to all but a tiny handful of countries are almost insignificant. Treating the European Union collectively, you can literally count all of Canada’s important trading destination countries on the fingers of one hand. The extent of the reliance on exports to the U.S. is sobering and, given their increasing “America-First” rhetoric and policies, alarming.

What Does Canada Import?

Canadian Imports by Category:

In 2023 Canada’s imports of goods and services at $946 billion were about 33% as large as its GDP.

The following chart shows imports by industry segment as a percentage of total goods and services imports.

Data Source: Statistics Canada
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1210013401

The data indicates that consumer goods are Canada’s largest import category at $166 billion or 17% of the total. Motor vehicles and parts at $142 billion constituted 14.5% of total goods and services imports. Commercial services constitutes $120 billion or 12% of the total.

Exports and imports of goods and services quarterly (choose current dollars, not chained 2017, and choose imports)

From Which Countries Does Canada Import Goods?

Data Source, Statistics Canada

International merchandise trade for all countries and by principal trading partners, quarterly seasonally adjusted (multiply by four to annualise).

Note that our data source does not include services in the imports-by-country data.

The United States accounts for $499 billion or 62% of Canada’s annual goods imports. The European Union collectively accounts for $73 billion or 9%. China accounts for $62 billion or just 8% of the total.  Mexico accounts for for $31 billion or 4%% and the U.K for $10 billion or  just 1%. The remaining $130 billion or 16% is spread widely around the globe. Most of the other countries in the world are insignificant to Canada in terms of imports. But there may be some countries from which Canada imports more than Mexico and certainly the U.K. This is the way our data source breaks down the countries.

For Which Products and Services is Canada a Net Exporter and For Which a Net Importer?

Energy – largely crude oil – is Canada’s largest NET export (exports minus imports) at $144 billion. And it’s “no contest”. That’s 3.4 times larger than the next highest net export category which is “metal and non-metallic mineral products”  – which includes steel and aluminum products at $45 billion. Oil is “bringing home the bacon” to this country and in a sense provides the dollars to pay for the things that Canada imports. Metal products, farm, fishing and intermediate food as well as forestry also bring home some bacon to this country.

Canada is a net exporter of commodities including notably energy products, metal & mineral products, farm, fishing & intermediate food products, and forestry products.

Canada is a net importer in most manufactured and finished goods categories including consumer goods, motor vehicles & parts, industrial machinery, and electronic & electrical equipment. Given all the support to that industry, it might be a surprise to see that motor vehicles are a large net IMPORT category for Canada.

Canadians don’t actually operate as one giant sort of “team”. But it can be argued or observed from this data that, for the country as a whole, the net exports of energy (oil) in particular and to a lesser extent other commodity products are what pay the bills to allow the country to be very much a net importer of consumer and manufactured goods.

The net contribution or surplus on energy products (mostly oil) is staggeringly large as indicated in the chart just above.

END
Shawn Allen, CFA, CPA, MBA, P.Eng.
President, InvestorsFriend Inc.
Article originally created November 3, 2007, the latest annual update was March 4, 2025.

Send any questions about this article to shawn@investorsfriend.com

 

Which Industries Contribute Most to Canada’s GDP?

Canada’s GDP by Industry

Which industries contribute the most to Canada’s economy? In terms of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) what are the percentages from oil and gas, real estate, construction, government services, forestry, farming, financial services and manufacturing etc.? The answers below might surprise or even shock you.

Firstly, what is the meaning of GDP?

GDP or Gross Domestic Product refers to the total dollar value of recorded economic production within a country. It measures the final value of all goods and services produced. The GDP of a particular industry is (roughly) the value of its sales minus the costs of goods or services purchased from other entities. The GDP of a particular industry measures the economic activity directly generated by that industry. The GDP of a particular industry is not a measure of its profit or value added since it does not deduct the cost of labour from the value of sales.

GDP is often criticized because it does not include the value of unpaid work or of unreported economic activities such as the “underground economy” or the value of “do-it-yourself” labour. Nevertheless, GDP is the best available figure for use in understanding the economy and the relative importance of each industry to the economy. There is one strange exception to the rule of not including unpaid and unreported economic activities. GDP includes a significant amount for the “imputed” rental value of owner-occupied houses.

What is Canada’s GDP by industry or sector?

As of Q4 2024, Canada’s reported GDP per year, in 2024 dollars, was running at $3.135 trillion or $3,135 billion per year.

The following chart shows the percentage contribution of the various goods and services sectors to the total as of December 2024. Note however that this is based on something Statistics Canada calls 2017 chained dollars, which (I understand) basically assumes that there were no relative price changes among the sectors since 2017. I would prefer to use current dollars. However, for complicated reasons, Statistics Canada produces figures on GDP by industry in current dollars only on a three year lag basis. Chained dollars do a good job of measuring changes in volume or activity over time but may distort the relative contributions by segment in today’s dollars. This may be particularly true for commodity industries where price changes can be far different than the overall inflation level.

Data Source: Statistics Canada

Quarterly GDP by Industry

https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=3610043403

The figures show that “Real estate and rental and leasing” is the largest segment of Canada’s economy at 13.2% of the total. This category (strangely) includes the “imputed” rental value of owner-occupied homes and that explains why this component is so very large. A large component here is the renting / leasing of real estate but it also includes auto and equipment leasing. Most retailers and office users rent their space. This category includes real estate brokers. Note that this category does not include constructing real estate! The high percentage related to the use of real estate (plus auto and equipment leasing) may seem high. But it includes the imputed rental value of owner occupied homes.

Manufacturing, while it may be lower than in years past, is still a very large portion of GDP and is the second largest component at 9.6%. Note that manufacturing includes process industries such as oil refineries, pulp mills and chemical plants.

Surprisingly, mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction has fallen down to the tenth largest item at 5.3% of total GDP. It would rank significantly higher than that in current dollars as opposed to 2017 chained dollars. The mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction segment would rank higher in current dollars since oil prices were considerably higher in 2023 versus 2017.

Review the rest of the chart to see the composition of the Canadian economy and the percent contribution of different segments.

In total, goods-producing industries contributed for 26% of Canada’s GDP while service-producing industries contributed 74% of GDP. The public sector (which would be mostly or almost entirely service-producing) contributed 21% of the total GDP.

See the link to the source data just above to see the raw data if desired.

Who Consumes Canada’s GDP?
Canada’s 2023 GDP was consumed in the following fashion: (Q3 figures seasonally adjusted at annual rate)

Personal Household consumption:                            59%
Government consumption:                                         22%
Investment in non-residential structures                  8.5%
Investment in residential buildings                            6.5%
Investment in intellectual property and inventory  2%
Government Investment:                                             4%
Net Exports:                                                                   -2%

Total:                                                                                100%

When you hear that consumers “account” for most of Canada’s GDP, that does not mean that businesses account for little. In fact Businesses and (yes) government create the GDP and consumers consume the largest share. Government also consumes a large share but this is done to serve people (those same consumers) for example direct service in the case of education and health care and other direct services and indirect service in the case of police, the court, the army and other government services. This should not be considered surprising or alarming. Why else should things be produced except for consumption? (and for some investment to fuel future consumption).

A surprisingly large 21% of Canada’s GDP is expended on investment in (the creation of) longer lasting assets such as buildings (including houses) and equipment rather than being consumed for immediate gratification. This includes replacing and upgrading worn out buildings and assets which may account for it being so high.

END

Shawn Allen – shawn@investorsfriend.com

Investorsfriend Inc.

March 4, 2025

The Canadian Economy at a Glance

I have just finished updating my popular reference article that provides a quick look at Canada's economy.
It includes graphs showing:
Percent contribution to GDP by Industry.
Which countries that Canada exports to. (Unfortunately the U.S. DOMINATES ...


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March 4, 2025 10:15 am eastern time

The negative reaction to Trump's tariffs continues this morning.
The S&P 500 is down 1.4% and Toronto is down 2.0%.
Shopify is down 6.5%.
TFI International is down 5.7%.
Oil prices and oil stocks are down.
I bought a small amount of CNQ this morn...


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March 3, 2025

Lots of news this Monday.
President Trump ,not long before the close of trading,  said that 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico will go ahead effective tomorrow. (10% on Oil from Canada.)
On that news the S&P 500 moved lower and ended t...


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Visa Inc.’s enormous reach. (March 2, 2025)

Visa's annual report reveals some truly mind-blowing numbers
There are 4.5 billion Visa cards issued. That's more than one for every two people on the planet! -- and that's despite Visa being largely excluded from China and India.
The total of all pa...


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March 1, 2025

Markets rallied Friday afternoon as the S&P 500 rose 1.6% on the day while Toronto was up 1.1%.
On Saturday Trump initiated actions that could add to tariffs on lumber imports and that could see streamlined processes for American lumber producers...


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Visa Inc. updated February 28, 2025

The report on Visa is updated. Due to its high valuation with a price earnings ratio of 35, it is rated only Weak Buy /Hold at $358.
It's an absolute powerhouse. Probably a good stock to hold. But I can't get excited about buying at this price.
...


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February 27, 2025

Markets moved lower later in the trading day with the S&P 500 finishing down 1.6% and Toronto finishing down 0.8%.
Restaurant Brands was up 3.0%.
Stantec was down 4.6%, giving back some of its recent strong gains.
I added to my (sadly) small Couc...


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February 27, 2025 11:30 am eastern

The headline I saw said RBC had beaten on both revenue adn earnings but the stock is down 1.8% - probably due to a more cautious outlook.
After some confusion yesterday, Trump has reiterated that the 25% tariff on Canadian goods will be imposed on Ma...


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February 26, 2025

On Wednesday, Stantec was up another 6.8%. Over the longer term its been an absolute monster performer. I'll plan to update the report soon.
The timing and level of the U.S. tariffs remains uncertain. It would be nice if Trump stuck with his reciproc...


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February 26 11:15 am eastern

Markets are pushing higher this morning with the S&P 500 and Toronto each up about 0.6%.
It's often interesting how pre-market headlines can be the opposite of the market reaction. On BNN the crawler indicated that National Bank had beat expectat...


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February 25, 2025

I don't have much to add to my earlier comment today.
Although the S&P 500 was down 0.5%, most of the stocks on our list were higher today.
Most of the big Canadian companies have now reported Q4 earnings but smaller companies are still reporting...


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February 25, 2025 11:20 am eastern

Markets are down moderately this morning with the S&P 500 down 0.8% and Toronto down 0.5%.
TFI International is up 3.7% after abandoning its plan to move its corporate registration to the U.S.
Stantec is up a hefty 9.5% after releasing earnings. ...


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February 24, 2025

After the close, TFI International announced that it will not move its "domicile" (corporate registration) to the US after all. This was not really that much of a move since no employees or managers were being moved. But apparently the company got a ...


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February 24, 2025 12:45 eastern time

Markets have edged up slightly this morning.
Grocer Metro Inc. is up 2.9% and has certainly been a strong performer lately.
Restaurant Brands is up 2.9% (Tim Horton's is always its biggest money maker as I recall).
Starbucks is up 1.6% after announci...


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February 23, 2025

On Friday the S&P 500 was down 1.7% and Toronto was down 1.4%.
I don't find that to be at all shocking or to be a big hit in the context of all the market gains in recent years plus all the uncertainty in the world (Ukraine and tariffs to name ju...


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TFI International updated February 22, 2025

TFI International is updated and rated (lower) Buy at CAN $135 and U.S. $95.
The stock fell sharply on Thursday and Friday after it released weak Q4 earnings and predicted that 2025 would be another tough year.
This company has a fantastic history de...


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February 21, 2025 11:15 am eastern

Markets are down 0.6% for both the S&P 500 and Toronto this morning.
I did just a little cautious bargain hunting this morning adding a little to my small holdings in TFI International and Cameco. TFI is in a competitive business but has been rea...


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February 20, 2025

On Thursday the S&P 500 and Toronto were each down 0.4%.
TFI International ended the day down 21%.
Shopify was down 3.7%.
I remain cautious when it comes to buying but I may add modestly to my TFI position given the lower price.
 
...


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February 20, 2025 11:15 am eastern

Markets are down modestly this morning.
TFI International is down a hefty 15%. This has been a fantastic winner for decades. But perhaps it went too high more recently. I plan to dig into the results and update the analysis of TFI in the next day or ...


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February 19, 2025

On Wednesday, the S&P 500 was up 0.2% while Toronto was down 0.1%.
RioCan was up 3.55% after releasing another strong quarter and after announcing a distribution increase of 4.3%. At $19.55 the forward yield is 5.9%. I would continue to consider ...


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Toll Brothers updated February 19

The report on Toll Brothers is updated and rated Buy at $113. This has been an extremely well managed company. After a string of exceptionally strong years, 2025 is likely to be a flat year for revenue and probably a decline in earnings partly becaus...


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February 19, 2025 12:15 pm eastern

Canadian Tire is up 3.7% after announcing this morning that it will sell its Helly Hanson division for $1, 276 million.
They purchased it six years ago and it was somewhat of an odd fit since it was a European company that sells to retailers world-wi...


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February 16, 2025

On Friday the S&P 500 ended the day essentially unchanged while Toronto was down 0.8%.
Enbridge was down 4.0% after releasing earnings. If more Canadian oil started to flow to other markets via the the Trans Mountain pipeline then Enbridge could ...


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Canadian Tire updated February 16, 2025

The report on Canadian Tire is updated and rated (lower) Buy at $144. I believe management is very strong but I'm somewhat cautious due to the risks associated with the current tariff threats between Canada and the U.S.
The company has a strong histo...


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Shopify report updated February 14, 2025

Shopify is updated and rated Sell at Canadian $182 or U.S. $128. It's a fantastic company but seems overly expensive after it's recent run up. I sold most of my Shopify today. Selling strong companies due to valuation can often be  mistake. But at th...


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February 14, 2025 11 am eastern

There are lots of Q4 earnings coming in. This included Enbridge which is down 3.3% on the news.
lululemon is down 4.5% possibly on fears about a slower economy.
Cameco is down 4.0% to $66.83 and is worth consideration for those that believe that nucl...


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February 13, 2025

Thursday was a good day for investors. The S&P 500 was up a full percentage point and and Toronto was up 0.5%.
Shopify was up 5.2%. I sold some Shopify shares today. The stock has done extremely well lately but is expensive. I will have an update...


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February 12, 2025

Markets ended the day down modestly on Wednesday with the S&P 500 and Toronto both down 0.3%.
I no longer follow Heineken but it had a strong day with a 14% gain. But it's gone nowhere overall in quite some years. Tougher business than you might ...


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February 12, 2025 10 am eastern time

Markets are weaker this morning after U.S. inflation came in higher than expected and hopes that FED interest rate cuts "soon would be here" have faded to next Christmas!
S&P 500 is down 0.6% and Toronto is down 0.4%.
Shopify is down 2.7% giving ...


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February 11, 2025

On Tuesday the S&P 500 was about unchanged while Toronto was down 0.1%.
Shopify was up another 2.9% after releasing strong earnings but with a somewhat subdued outlook.
Trump seems to be serious about trying to crush Canada's export economy. His ...


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CN Rail report updated February 11, 2025

The report on CN Rail is updated and rated (lower) Buy at CAN $146 or U.S. $103.
The update is for its Q4 and 2024 results. CN has seen weak traffic growth and a modest decline in earnings int eh past two years. It is forecasting 10 to 15% earnings p...


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Fixed Income 3.9% 10 year bond City of Montreal – February 11 11:30 am eastern

I see TD Direct (and presumably other brokers) is out with a new 10 year bond issue. It pays 3.9% and matures in 10 years.
Ten years is a long time. I would only consider this if you are committed to holding for the full ten years. It will not be a l...


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Trump’s new tariifs

Trump's new 25% trait on steel and aluminum is nasty for Canada.
Can't be good for CN or CP rail. I wonder what happens to steel sale contracts that were arranged prior to the tariff. Does the U.S. buyer try to cancel or ask for a price reduction to ...


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February 10, 2025

On Friday, the S&P 500 was up 0.7% and Toronto was up 0.85%.
Restaurant Brands was up 3.6%.
Trump continues to wreak havoc. So far the Canadian stock market has shrugged off the threat for the most part. So far.
...


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February 8, 2025

On Friday the S&P 500 was down 0.95% and Toronto was down 0.4%.
Toll Brothers was down 6.5%.
West Texas Oil is at $71 U.S.
The Canadian employment report for January was strong with an estimated 76,000 jobs added on a seasonally adjusted basis.
...


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February 7, 2025 11 am eastern time

With Linamar's stock price down due to the tariff threats, I decided to add modestly to my position this morning. I see that the company has continued to buy back shares.
Toll Brothers is down 4.6% this morning.
Note that there may be an outage on th...


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February 6, 2025

On Thursday, the S&P 500 was up 0.4% while Toronto was down 0.1%.
It was relatively quiet day and there were no particularly noteworthy moves in the stocks on our list.
 
...


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February 6, 2025 – 8:45 am eastern – (before the open)

Markets were positive on Wednesday with the S&P 5oo up 0.4% and Toronto up 1.15%.
With the tariff threat delayed, Linamar was up 3.6%.
RiocCan bounced up 3.8%.
After the close Costco reported vert strong same-store sales growth figures for Januar...


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February 4, 2025

On Tuesday, with a 30 day reprieve on the tariffs, the S&P 500 was up 0.7%  and Toronto was up 0.15%.
Cameco was up 4.3%.
Hopefully, the rest of this week will be less eventful. Lots of Q4 earnings reports are coming in now.
 
...


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Starbucks updated February 4, 2025

The report on Starbucks is updated and rated Weak Buy / Hold at $108. Analysts appear to be confident that its turnaround will work. But meantime it looks expensive to me. Given its powerful brand and strong economics I won't call it a Sell. But I no...


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February 3, 2025

At the end of the day, the S&P 500 was only down 0.8% and Toronto was down 1.1%.
Linamar was down 4.9%.
CN Rail was down 5.3%.
The Canadian dollar is currently at 69.4 cents U.S.
The five year government of Canada bond is down to 2.75% after dipp...


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February 3, 2025 12:20 pm eastern time

Given the tariffs, and the lower dollar, some of the stocks that I thought would be hurt are indeed down today.
Canadian Tire is down 3.7%
CN rail is down 4.0%.
Linamar is down 4.9%. (Will be interesting to see if they will buy back stock at the low ...


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February 2, 2025 – Tariffs are here…

Okay, well, 25% tariffs on Canadian exports to the U.S. except for Energy which is 10%. Some retaliation by Canada. (Strong speech by Trudeau, which I think even Trudeau haters would acknowledge if they are honest - unless they are completely off the...


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February 2, 2025

On Friday, which now seems like ancient history, the S&P 500 was down 0.5% and Toronto was down 1.1% as the tariff announcement loomed.
Some of the Canadian stocks that were down on tariff worries included:
Linamar down 4.1%. Extremely well manag...


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Bond investing – January 31 11 am eastern time

If you are interested in investing in individual bonds you may find that the discount brokers don't offer a lot.
And I am leery to buy anything other than new issues due to a typically wide and usually hidden bid / ask spread.
And if you buy a new is...


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January 31, 2025 10 am eastern time

There is of course huge uncertainty regarding tariffs and their impacts.
There was some indication that oil might be exempted.
I decided to nibble a bit on Canadian Natural Resources and the Energy ETF (XEG) this morning. If there is good news for oi...


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A preferred share update

For those interested in preferred shares the reset dividend on ENB.PF.C has now been announced. The new yield is about 6.86%. If long-term interest rates decline this should offer a modest capital gain along with the eligible dividend and can be a go...


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January 30, 2025

Markets were mostly higher on Thursday with the S&P 500 up 0.5% and Toronto up 1.3%.
TransAlta was up 6.2%.
Shopify was up 2.4% to a 52 week high.
Toll Brothers was up 3.6%.
I'm not sure what pushed Toronto up 1.3% in the face of threatened 25% t...


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January 29, 2025

On Wednesday, the S&P 500 was down 0.4% while Toronto was up 0.2%.
The Bank of Canada reduced its overnight interest rate by another 0.25% while the U.S. FED held rates firm.
The U.S. FED is concerned about inflation related to tariffs while in C...


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January 29, 2025 – before the market open

On Tuesday the S&P 500 was up 0.9% and Toronto was up 0.5%.
Shopify was up 9.6% and has recovered essentially all of its recent losses and is near a 52 week high.
The Bank of Canada is expected to lower interest rates by another 0.25% this mornin...


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January 28, 2025

On Monday, the S&P 500 was down 1.5% and Toronto was down 0.7%.
TFI International was up 3.7%. It's been a tremendous long-term winner.
Toll Brothers was also up 3.7%. It has a history of volatility and is linked to new home construction and sale...


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January 26, 2026

With year-end financial reports soon starting to come in I plan to get back to more updates soon.
I find it interesting that the preferred share CWB.PR.D is at $27.99 -call it $28. It pays a high dividend of $1.9275 per year for an attractive yield o...


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January 24, 2025 1:45 pm eastern time

The last day of trading on week one of Donald J. Trump version 2.
The S& P 500 is down 0.3% and Toronto is up 0.2% this afternoon.
While Canada's economy seems very likely to be harmed by the tariffs it has to be remembered that the Toronto stock...


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January 23, 2025

Trump is NOT backing down on tariff threats.
In a speech to Davos today he said that America does not need Canada's autos, oil and gas or lumber since they have their own. A 25% tariff could be applied by next month. America can't really wean itself ...


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January 23, 2025 1:45 pm eastern

Markets are nudging higher again today with the S&P 500 up 0.2% and Toronto up 0.4%.
AutoCanada is up another 4.0%. Hopefully a sign of even better times ahead.
Canadian Tire is up 4.0% which surprises me given the lower Canadian dollar and possi...


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January 22, 2025 2:15 pm eastern

On Wednesday afternoon the S&P 500 is up 0.7% and appears to be benefiting from a bit of a "Trump bump" so far. Toronto is up 0.2% and has also increased this week despite fears of tariffs that Trump might impose on Canada.
AutoCanada is up 4.6% ...


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January 20, 2:15 pm eastern – Inauguration day

U.S. markets are closed for the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday - which is probably a good thing so that the markets can have time to digest Trump's speech and first day.
Toronto is up 0.25%.
For high interest cash accounts there are some ETF funds th...


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Melcor REIT comment January 17, 2025

Checking for press releases I saw where the Melcor REIT made a sort of non-cash distribution that amounts to absolutely nothing in substance.
For their own corporate income tax purposes they sort of pretended to pay out 36 cents per unit in the form ...


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January 17, 2025 2 pm eastern

Markets are strong again to day with the S&P 500 up 1.2% and Toronto up 0.9%.
The S&P 500 is back above 6000.
Perhaps this is driven by excitement about Trump's inauguration on Monday.
AutoCanada is up 3.2% (for what that's worth on this vola...


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January 16, 2025

The S&P 500 is about unchanged while Toronto is up 0.3%.
TransAlta and Capital Power are both up 3.5%. They had both risen a lot last Fall and then slipped back. I think their gains on optimism about data centers in Alberta may have been too opti...


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January 15, 2025 1:45 pm eastern

Markets are strong today with the S&P 500 up 1.7% and Toronto up 0.8%.
This is in reaction to strong earnings reports from J.P. Morgan and Wells Fargo and perhaps more so to a U.S. inflation report which at 2.9% is not low but came in as expected...


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January 14, 2025 2:30 pm eastern

Markets are modestly higher on Tuesday afternoon with the S&P 500 up 0.35% and Toronto up 0.2%.
Toll Brothers is up 3.4%. New Home builders had been benefiting from a shortage of existing homes for sale as people held onto to their low rate mortg...


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January 13, 2025

Further to my earlier comment today:
lululemon reported that it now expects its Q4 (which ends at the end of January) to be somewhat better than earlier expected. Not a blow-out quarter but another quarter of growth. The stocks was up a modest 0.9% o...


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January 13, 2025 2pm eastern

Markets are moderately negative today with the S&P 500 down 0.2% and Toronto down 0.8%.
Shopify is down 3.8%. I had lighted up on that and it kept going up. But now it looks like lightening up was a good idea. Shopify is powerful and will gain in...


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January 11, 2025

Markets are always uncertain - even when they seem predictable.
This next few weeks seem particularly uncertain as Trump's inauguration approaches.
What will he do in the first week in office? Will markets focus on the good (lower corporate income ta...


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January 10, 2025 1:15 pm eastern time

Markets are down somewhat today with the S&P 500 down 1.4% and Toronto down 1.0%.
Long-term bond yields continue to rise.
It seems likely that markets will continue to be nervous as Trump's inauguration approaches and we see what he does in the f...


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January 9, 2025 2:30 eastern time

U.S. markets are closed today for a day of mourning for Jimmy Carter.
Toronto is up 0.2%.
Yesterday, after the close, Costco reported very strong same-store sales growth for December. The 9.8% gain in U.S. same-store sales was the highest in about a ...


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January 8, 2025 1:30 pm eastern time

Markets are about unchanged for the day at the moment.
With Linamar down 3.4% I decided to add modestly to my position just now. I see also that CEO Linda Hasenfratz bought 3 million dollars worth of shares in December despite her already massive hol...


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January 6, 2025

With about 40 minutes to go in the trading day markets are fairly quiet. They were higher earlier today.
Congress has peacefully certified Trump's election, What a difference from four years ago! I never would have guessed that the U.S. having a peac...


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January 5, 2025

Greetings from Hawaii (Big Island) - will be here all month.
On Friday, the S&P 500 was up 1.3% and Toronto was down 0.7%.
Basically, all is pretty calm in the markets. The preferred shares continue to do well.
Oil prices have risen which is good...


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January 2, 2025

On this first day of trading in 2025 the S&P 500 was down 0.2% while Toronto was up 0.7%.
lululemon was down 2.6%.
Cameco was up 1.6% despite announcing that production was unexpectedly suspended at it Kazakhstan venture mine (not managed by Came...


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Happy New Year!

2024 is now wrapped up and here are some high lights (these exclude dividends):
The S&P 500 index was up 23.3%
The Toronto stock index was up 18.0%
The NASDAQ index was up 28.6%
A traditional 60/40 balanced and geographically diversified portfoli...


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